Felix Laurent
Anthropic's compute commitments now total about $895.4 billion. The figure appears in the company's amended IPO filing, an S-1/A submitted to the SEC on November 2. Half of it falls due before the end of 2030.
A post by The Kobeissi Letter spread the number on X, passing 100,000 views, and called the obligations unprecedented. The filing backs most of its figures. It also shows which parts of the bill are fixed and which ones Anthropic can still walk away from.
What Anthropic's amended S-1 discloses
When we read the first public S-1 in October, the total for compute commitments was left blank. The amended filing fills it in. Anthropic says its purchase commitments and leases add up to about $895.4 billion, "substantially all" of it for compute and infrastructure.
The timeline stretches over two decades. About $447.5 billion is expected before December 31, 2030, and the rest mostly between 2031 and 2045. About $69.8 billion is due in the 12 months after September 30, 2026.
The total counts deals signed "as of and subsequent to" September 30. That includes about $100.2 billion in commitments added after the quarter closed, mostly data center leases and cloud hosting deals. Behind the headline sits a short list of suppliers.
Who gets Anthropic's compute money
The largest single line goes to Broadcom. Anthropic leases TPU-based hardware through five-year equipment leases with Broadcom and its financing partners. Rent over the life of those leases comes to about $161.2 billion, excluding interest.
The cloud providers follow. Google gets at least $121.3 billion through July 2033 under a hosting deal signed in March 2026. Amazon gets at least $110 billion between May 2026 and April 2036. Microsoft gets at least $44.9 billion between November 2026 and June 2033.
The rest goes to GPU suppliers. SpaceXAI, the former xAI that is now part of SpaceX, can receive up to $120.5 billion for NVIDIA-based compute through 2029. That works out to about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity arrives, which Anthropic expects in December 2026. Nscale gets up to $44.6 billion and Lambda about $41.3 billion.
Two more deals sit outside the total. Anthropic estimates $125 billion to $150 billion for extra TPU compute from a third-party provider, due between 2028 and 2031. It also expects to spend more than $20 billion on AMD Helios rack systems from 2027. Neither figure is in the $895.4 billion.
So the full bill could run past $1 trillion. How much of it Anthropic must actually pay is a different question.
How much of the $895 billion is locked in
Much of it is fixed. The Google, Amazon and Microsoft deals oblige Anthropic to spend the minimum "regardless of actual usage." If spending falls short, Anthropic pays the difference. The Broadcom leases cannot be cancelled except on default.
Other contracts are looser. After initial periods ending in January and March 2027, either side can cancel a SpaceXAI agreement with 90 days' notice. The Nscale and Lambda fees accrue only as capacity is delivered and accepted. Lambda's largest deal, worth about $34.9 billion, can end if Lambda fails to secure the facility lease.
Leases that have not started yet carry the biggest caveat. They total about $451.2 billion in estimated undiscounted payments, up from $50.2 billion at the end of 2025. Anthropic says some of them can be terminated before they start. Others depend on the counterparty securing financing, facilities or regulatory approval.
The filing also warns that partners may not deliver the full capacity on time. Anthropic says it has asked cloud providers for more compute than they were willing to give. The remaining question is whether its income can carry the fixed part of the bill.
Can Anthropic pay for it
Revenue is growing fast enough to make the plan plausible. Anthropic earned $33.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up from $2.5 billion a year earlier. Its operating loss shrank to $1.3 billion, and adjusted operating income reached $4.1 billion.
The net loss looks far worse at $104 billion for the nine months. About $94.3 billion of that comes from fair value changes in derivative liabilities and SAFEs. These are accounting items tied to its funding deals. The cash cost of running the company is much smaller.
On the balance sheet, Anthropic had $95.6 billion in cash and $36.3 billion in short-term investments. It also has $14.8 billion available under a credit facility. Partners offer up to $77 billion more through note purchase agreements, but some draws depend on Anthropic hitting revenue targets.
That cash covers the next 12 months of commitments almost twice over. The 2030 total of $447.5 billion is a different scale. Paying it requires revenue to keep compounding, plus the money from the IPO, which will list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has described this risk himself. In a February interview with podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, he explained why Anthropic does not buy compute for its most optimistic forecast. At 10x growth a year, revenue would reach $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Even at $800 billion, he said, "there's no hedge on earth that could stop me from going bankrupt if I buy that much compute."
A clip of that answer spread on X this week. The post shortened it to "If my revenue is not $1 trillion by 2027, Anthropic will go bankrupt." The full answer describes the opposite choice. Anthropic sizes its purchases so that a year's delay, or 5x growth instead of 10x, does not sink it. In Amodei's words, that means supporting "hundreds of billions, not trillions." The $895.4 billion spread to 2045 fits that plan.
Is Anthropic's spending unprecedented
For a company of its age and size, yes. The Kobeissi Letter notes that among big tech firms only Alphabet, at $1.06 trillion, and Meta, at $866 billion, carry comparable commitments. Those companies fund theirs from decades of profitable advertising. Anthropic was founded in 2021 and reached a $4.6 billion revenue year only in 2025.
The amended S-1 makes the bet concrete. Anthropic has signed for about $70 billion of compute in the next year and $447.5 billion by 2030. Large parts of that bill are payable whether or not the capacity is used. The flexible pieces, like the SpaceXAI deals and leases that have not started, give it some room to scale back. Investors in the ANT listing are effectively buying a claim on whether Claude revenue keeps up with that schedule.
Sources
- Anthropic, PBC amended registration statement (S-1/A), SEC EDGAR – commitments, contracts, revenue and liquidity, November 2, 2026
- Dario Amodei interview, Dwarkesh Podcast – compute purchases and bankruptcy risk, February 13, 2026
- The Kobeissi Letter on X – commitments chart and big tech comparison, November 5, 2026
